Sisolak, Cortez Masto narrowly lead GOP opponents in days before election – The Nevada Independent

A few days before the early voting period ends in Nevada, top Democratic incumbents, including Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto and Gov. Steve Sisolak, are holding a tight lead on their Republican opponents, according to a new report. Nevada Independent/ OH Predictive Insights Survey of likely voters.

In the national race for Nevada’s US Senate seat, Cortez Masto leads former Republican Attorney General Adam Laxalt by 2 points (43 percent to 41 percent), and in the governor’s race by a wide margin contested, Sisolak leads Republican Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo by 4 points. (45 percent to 41 percent). Both results are within the poll’s 4 percent margin of error.

In an interview Monday, Mike Noble, chief research officer and managing partner of the Arizona-based OHPI, highlighted “super tight” results for Washoe County respondents. Among voters in that group, Laxalt led Cortez Masto by 2 points, and Lombardo led Sisolak by 1 point.

“Washoe is super tight and can be lined up being that bell tower again, or kind of split between the campaigns. [Nevada] and Clark County,” Noble said.

Democratic candidates for several statewide offices — attorney general, secretary of state and treasurer — also led their respective Republican opponents by slim margins. The poll, however, found that voters are split on Question 3, the initiative that would overhaul the state’s electoral system by instituting open primaries and ranked-choice voting in the general election.

“The pressure is on the campaigns. They’re going to bring their big guns of heavy talkers, and they’re going to continue to see an incredible amount of money poured into the state because these races, I think, are all going to be close,” Noble said.

The poll results, which predict a slight Democratic lead in turnout, are a positive sign for the state’s vulnerable Democratic incumbents, as a number of recent polls have found Republican challengers holding even or slightly ahead in competitive races. . That includes the past month Nevada Independent/OH Predictive Insights survey that found the Republican candidates in the lead up and down the vote.

This poll polled 600 likely Nevada voters via live phone calls and text messages from October 24-27. The poll surveyed a slightly Democratic group, including 36 percent Democrats, 35 percent Republicans and 28 percent independents or non-major party voters. The survey also asked respondents how they would vote in 2020. The results showed that the group supports Democratic President Joe Biden by a larger margin (48 percent to 43 percent) than his current margin of victory in 2020 over President Donald Trump in Nevada (50 percent). 48 percent).

Below, we explore the poll results for the state’s primary races and poll question 3, which proposes the implementation of open primary elections and ranked-choice voting.

Senate

Cortez Masto The margin of error issue adds to a wide array of public polls conducted since the beginning of last month that suggest a Senate race still too close to call.

Two polls released last week show a slight Laxalt drive That includes a poll from a progressive polling company Data for Progresswhich showed Laxalt in the lead by one point, 49 points to 48 points, and tied it with the Republicans. Trafalgar Groupwhich showed Laxalt leading by just over 4 points, 49.8 points to 45.6 points — and stands as one of the few polls showing the candidates outside the margin of error.

The New York Times and the college of Siena released another poll on Monday showing a virtual tie, 47 points to 47 points, in the race.

On Monday Nevada independent/OHPI survey, an additional 10 percent of respondents indicated that they were not sure of their choice with just over a week until election day – although a vast majority of these individuals, about 85 percent of all undecided respondents said they were leaning neither toward Laxalt nor Cortez. Mast.

However, among the small group of undecided respondents who leaned toward a major-party candidate, Laxalt won the lion’s share — 13 percent to Cortez Masto’s 4 percent.

Poll respondents were also asked whether they would vote “for” their preferred candidate or “against” the other major party’s candidate. A larger share of respondents indicated that they voted “for” Cortez Masto (85 percent), rather than “against” Laxalt (15 percent), compared to the other way around. Of all individuals who prefer Laxalt, 68 percent indicated they voted “against” Cortez Masto, with 32 percent voting “for” instead.

More broadly, amid a months-long advertising blitz by Republicans seeking to tie Cortez Masto to an unpopular White House, poll results also showed Joe Biden’s favorability rating in Nevada jumped — if it is still under water – to 45 percent, while its disfavor has fallen to 45 percent. only 47 percent.

It marks a 4 percent increase from two Nevada Independent/ OHPI polls – one from beginning of October and another from August – which showed that Biden was around 41 percent approval.

It is not clear how successful the Republican attacks were in casting Cortez Masto as a “rubber stamp” for Biden, as the poll showed Cortez Masto with an advantage over Biden and Laxalt in the net approval rating. Forty-seven percent of respondents gave the incumbent senator a favorable rating, compared to 45 percent unfavorable.

Laxalt, by comparison, had 41 percent favorable to 46 percent unfavorable.

governor

The survey indicates that Sisolak carries a slim lead over Lombard (45 percent to 41 percent) although that edge is within the margin of error. Nine percent of respondents said they were not sure who they would vote for, while another 1 percent said they would vote for “none of these candidates.”

The results are largely aligned with previous vote, which indicates a close race, but differs that recent polling shows a slight Democratic advantage. An early October poll from The Nevada Independent/OHPI Insights showed Lombardo forward with a tight 3 points ahead of the governor (45 percent to 41 percent).

Respondents also expressed a more positive opinion of Sisolak than Lombardo. Sisolak’s favorability was slightly above water (48 percent favorable to 46 percent unfavorable), while Lombardo was rated significantly less favorably (41 percent favorable to 49 percent unfavorable).

Other races in the state

Attorney General

Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford held the largest lead of any candidate for state office in the void ballot over his Republican opponent, Sigal Chattah.

Ford led Chattah by 8 points (43 percent to 35 percent), well outside the poll’s margin of error. Fifteen percent of respondents said they weren’t sure who they would support in the race, and only 3 percent said they would choose “none of these candidates” on the ballot.

In a previous poll conducted by OHPI a month ago, Chattah had a narrow, 2-point lead over Ford (39 percent to 37 percent), while a similar share of 17 percent of respondents was undecided in the rush at the moment.

Secretary of State

In the race to determine who will be responsible for overseeing state elections, among other responsibilities, the Democrat Cisco Aguilar Republican leadership Jim Marchant by 3 points – within the poll’s margin of error.

Forty-one percent of respondents said they would vote for Aguilar, while 38 percent said they would vote for Marchant. Only 1 percent of respondents said they would select “none of these candidates,” and another 13 percent indicated they were undecided.

The result reversed a trend of polls that had shown firm projections for Marchant, who is lagging behind his Democratic opponent, Aguilar, in campaign fund raising and in advertising expense. Marchant created a national profile from their efforts to deny the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election and question the electronic voting equipment.

A previous OHPI survey released in early October showed Marchant leading Aguilar by 8 points (39 percent to 31 percent), while 21 percent of respondents indicated that they were undecided at that time.

Since the last OHPI poll, the percentage of undecided voters in each of the state’s down-ballot races has dropped — coinciding with voters receiving their ballots, Noble said.

“They’re starting to pay attention. What you see — that difference — is kind of like the races are breaking down now,” he said. “Democrats are more united now on ticket races, and there’s just a lot less runoff to third-party candidates.”

He added that third-party candidates “seem to siphon more from the Republicans than the Democrats.”

In the race for Secretary of State, a pair of third-party candidates received 6 percent of support in the poll.

treasurer

Democratic Treasurer Zach Conine led his Republican opponent, Michele Fioreby 3 points (38 percent to 35 percent) — within the poll’s margin of error.

With just a week to go before Election Day, 17 percent of respondents indicated they were undecided and 2 percent said they would vote for “none of these candidates.”

Flower initially launched a campaign for governor last year but retired and changed race to challenge Conine, who was elected to his first term in 2018. The poll reversed the results of an OHPI poll last month that showed Conine trailing Fiore by 8 points.

Noble said turnout would be key for down-the-ticket races that draw significantly less attention and money than the top-tier races for Senate and governor.

“It’s really about participation for these people, but especially those with tickets because there are just a lot of people who haven’t decided or don’t have information about it,” he said. “So where they break, I think will be important.”

Poll question 3

Opinions were almost equally divided on Question 3, which proposes to amend the state Constitution to implement open primary elections and ranked choice voting. Support for the measure was within the poll’s margin of error (44 percent to 41 percent), with 15 percent of respondents saying they were still undecided.

Those numbers marked a slight shift in opinion from likely voters polled last month, when 38 percent expressed support compared to 40 percent opposed.

The increase in support also comes as Nevada Voters First, the group in the state that supports the ballot question, has spent millions of dollars in advertising, with support from several out-of-state billionaires.

Noble said he thinks voters are not as familiar with the proposed ideas, which have only been adopted stateside in Maine and Alaska.

“If it doesn’t pass this time, with a little more time, education, I think it will pass,” he said. “It’s just a matter of — will it be in a midterm cycle or in a presidential year, when you have more younger voters, more other people who are probably more likely to vote for him?”

To learn more about the measure, check out The Nevada Independent’s Question 3 explainer here.

Find full survey results and crosstabs here.

Updated: 10/31/22 at 3:07 p.m – This story has been updated to include details from an interview with surveyor Mike Noble.